VARANASI, MAY 12 -
India's general election reaches a climax on Monday as opposition
challenger Narendra Modi seeks a personal mandate in Varanasi, the holy
city on the river Ganges, to govern by his modernized brand of Hindu
nationalism.
Modi is the first prime ministerial candidate to stand in the
3,000-year-old city where several religions mingle. Varanasi is an
ancient centre of Buddhism but one in six voters is Muslim; Hindus
believe that to die here brings salvation by escaping the cycle of
reincarnation.
A triumph in the city - one of 41 seats in Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and
West Bengal which are voting on the final day of India's five-week
general election - would crown a grueling campaign by the 63-year-old
chief minister of Gujarat to lead his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) back
to power after a decade in opposition.
Campaigning mainly on promises to create jobs and restore India to a
path of high economic growth, Modi - whose critics accuse him of
harboring Hindu supremacist views - has largely steered clear of
religion.
His oratory skills and high-tech campaign have made him a solid
favorite in opinion polls to unseat the Nehru-Gandhi dynasty from New
Delhi - and easily take Varanasi.
Modi "will win the election from this Varanasi constituency with a
large majority", BJP President Rajnath Singh told reporters as
campaigning wrapped up at the weekend. All other candidates would "lose
their deposits".
Congress, which has lost popularity after a string of corruption
scandals and a sharp economic slowdown, promises to extend welfare
policies that helped it sweep into a second term five years ago. "I am
confident of giving a tough fight to Narendra Modi," its candidate Ajay
Rai told Reuters.
MARKET OPTIMISM
Buoyed by reports from the field in the eight rounds of voting already
held, BJP leaders predict that the party and its allies may win a record
300 seats - above the 272 needed to secure an outright majority.
They will get an idea of whether they are right soon after voting ends
on Monday, with the first TV exit polls due to be released at 6:30 p.m.
(1300 GMT). The official count is due on Friday.
Market rumors that the exit polls would point to a clear BJP victory
sent Indian stocks to a record high last week, a sign of investor hopes
that Modi would win a clear endorsement for his 'Gujarat model' of
pro-business policies.
Polls have got it wrong in the past, however, falsely predicting that
the BJP would win in 2004. India's bourse regulator has asked exchanges
to test their systems to cope in case there is a sell-off on Tuesday.
If Modi falls short, not only might he miss out on the premiership, but
India would also face uncertain talks to form a coalition government
that - even if led by the BJP - could fall hostage to the demands of
regional parties.
BATTLE OF THE ROADSHOWS
The baking streets of Varanasi have witnessed a procession of
carnival-style 'roadshows' where candidates sought to prove their
pulling power among locals whose voting patterns are tied to caste as
well as religion.
Even Rahul Gandhi, whose lackluster campaign is likely to end in the
worst-ever defeat for the ruling Congress party, drew big crowds on
Saturday, in a response to Modi's campaign stop in his own constituency
days earlier.
"Congress is a good party which has provided security and employment to
Muslims - we trust this party," said Shakeel Ahmed, a 45-year-old
Muslim who sported an orange, white and green Congress sun visor and
works as a silk weaver.
As Gandhi's bandwagon drew away, one younger man said he would vote for
anti-corruption campaigner Arvind Kejriwal, the leader of the Aam Admi,
or Common Man, party who has gone head to head with Modi.
"Modi is not a good man," said Faizan Ansari, 19, also a silk weaver.
"His people say that those who oppose him should go to Pakistan. We love
India. We don't fear Modi."
That antipathy stems from Modi's handling of sectarian riots in Gujarat
in 2002, in which more than 1,000 people were killed, most of them
Muslims. Modi denies wrongdoing, and a probe ordered by the Supreme
Court has found no case for him to answer.
SPLITTING THE VOTE
However, with anti-Modi votes split between Aam Admi and Congress, none
of his rivals predict victory in the ancient city, where Hindus bathe
daily in the Ganges. One local poll published by the India Today media
group gives him 56 percent of the vote in the city, with the Congress
candidate a distant second.
"There is no contest in Varanasi," said Koushal Kishor Mishra, a
political science professor at the Banaras Hindu University in Varanasi.
"The Modi wave is there - I don't know if it is a tsunami or not."
Modi has raised the stakes by attacking regional rivals that he might
need to call on if the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance does fall
short of a majority, potentially undermining his bid for the
premiership.
He spent the last day of a 300,000 km (185,000-mile) campaign odyssey
on the road in Uttar Pradesh, also appealing in a blog post for a clean
sweep of India's most populous state.
With Modi gone from the city, it fell to lookalike Ranvir Dahiya, a
retired bus driver from New Delhi, to show the BJP's colors on the
streets of Varanasi. The BJP loyalist, campaigning with a group of about
20 orange-clad party activists, was no less confident than the real
Modi.
"Modi will win in Varanasi with a majority of 300,000 to 400,000," said
Dahiya, who, like Modi, wore steel-framed glasses and a silver beard.
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